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<!-- you can have any number of categories here --> [[Category:Common Fallacies Of Economics]] {{DES | des = Coined by [[Matt Yglesias]], this refers to explaining what is well known with standard economics, and explaining the remaining unknown part with hand-waving appeals to popular prejudices, usually supporting a right-wing moral argument. | show=}} [http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/can-culture-predict-economic-development.html Noah Smith] has the clearest description of this common fraud: <blockquote>The method goes like this:<br><br> Step 1: Take some hard-to-understand phenomenon, like economic growth. Explain the parts you can explain with standard economics (capital, labor, prices, etc.). What's left - the part that really drives the model - is the phlogiston.<br><br> Step 2: Label the phlogiston. Make sure you choose a name that refers to something people in general already believe in. "Culture" is great. "Confidence" works too, as do "institutions", "technology", "power","the true desires of the Fed", and of course, "irrational expectations" (the favorite of us behavioral finance types, hehe).<br><br> Step 3: Act like you know exactly how the phlogiston behaves. Predict its effects based on commonly held national/ethnic/gender stereotypes ("Greece is in trouble because Greeks are lazy!"), or your political beliefs ("Obama the Kenyan Muslim socialist is killing business confidence!"), or any plausible-sounding story that plays to popular prejudices, preconceptions, fears, or hopes.<br><br> Yes, in the end, conventional wisdom and stereotypes and politics end up driving the model. But along the way, your careful selection of like-minded sources, and your authoritative tone, allow you to seem really wise and sagely in front of an audience of people who were primed to believe your conclusion.<br><br> Unfortunately, you may run into a problem: Someone may use the same phlogiston, but different assumptions, to reach the exact opposite conclusion.'' </blockquote> <!-- DPL has problems with categories that have a single quote in them. Use these explicit workarounds. --> <!-- normally, we would use {{Links}} and {{Quotes}} {{List|Phlogistonomics|links=true}} {{Quotations|Phlogistonomics|quotes=true}} {{Text | }} -->
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